Social Security’s 2027 Raise Is Shaping Up to Be the Biggest in Four Years

Early estimates put the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) at 3.6%, according to the latest projection from The Senior Citizens League — up 0.8 percentage points from this year’s increase and, if it holds, the largest COLA since 2022. AARP’s own independent forecast, which it began publishing this year, lands close by at 3.5%. For the average beneficiary, a 3.6% adjustment works out to roughly $69.75 more per month.

The number isn’t final. The Social Security Administration calculates the actual COLA by comparing average third-quarter inflation (July through September) against the same period a year earlier, using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, and won’t announce the official figure until October 14. It’s already moved once this cycle — last month’s estimate was 3.8%, and it’s since eased alongside a softer inflation picture, even as gas prices ticked back up. That kind of month-to-month drift is normal for an estimate built on incomplete data, not a sign the final number is unreliable.

For the roughly 75.7 million Americans who receive Social Security, the COLA is one input among several in a retirement budget, not the whole picture. A larger-than-usual adjustment is a reasonable data point to note while planning cash flow for next year, but it doesn’t change the underlying case for a diversified plan that isn’t built around any single annual adjustment keeping pace with the retiree’s actual cost of living.